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Faulty predictions for Election 2012

It comes down to numbers. And in the final days of this presidential race, from polling data to early voting, they favor Mitt Romney.”


GOP strategist Karl Rove, in the Wall Street Journal, Oct. 31.

New York Times polling blogger “Nate Silver says there’s a 73.6 percent chance that the president’s going to win. Anybody that thinks this race is anything but a tossup right now is such an ideologue [that] they should be kept away from typewriters . . . because they’re jokes.”



Joe Scarborough, on MSNBC’s “Morning Joe,” Oct. 29.

“By my reckoning, Gov. Romney will win . . . Florida, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia, plus either New Hampshire and/or Iowa for 270 to 276 electoral votes.”

University of Maryland professor Peter Morici, Tuesday morning, to e-mail subscribers (Romney won only North Carolina).

I believe the minimum result will be 53-47 [percent] Romney, over 300 electoral votes, and the Republicans will pick up the Senate. I base that just on just years and years of experience.”


Newt Gingrich on Fox News,
Oct. 25

Mitt Romney will win big tonight. . . . Despite intense efforts, Obama will lose both Ohio and Pennsylvania. . . . One of the big Wednesday morning stories will be why most of the polls didn’t have this right.”

Former GOP candidate Steve Forbes, on Forbes.com, Tuesday.

But frankly, my view, Greta, is that Romney is going to win this election by more than five points and that he’s going to get north of 320 electoral votes.”

Former Bill Clinton pollster Dick Morris, to Fox News’s Greta van Susteren, Oct. 26.

“I’m predicting a 5 to 7 point popular vote victory [for Romney]. Electorally it won’t even be that close. Romney will win many states that went to Obama in 2008. I’m predicting Romney victories in Ohio, Florida, Colorado, Virginia, Iowa, Wisconsin, New Hampshire, North Carolina, and Indiana. I predict a Romney victory by 100 to 120 electoral votes.”

Las Vegas oddsmaker Wayne Allyn Root, in a Foxnews.com column, Oct. 9 (of the states listed, Romney won only North Carolina and Indiana and was losing in Florida).


“Furthermore, in battleground states, the edge in early and absentee vote turnout that propelled Democrats to victory in 2008 has clearly been eroded, cut in half according to a Republican
National Committee summary.”





Rove, WSJ, Oct. 31.


“In addition to the data, the anecdotal and intangible evidence — from crowd sizes to each side’s closing arguments — give the sense that the odds favor Mr. Romney. They do. My prediction: Sometime after the cock crows on the morning of Nov. 7, Mitt Romney will be declared America’s 45th president. Let’s call it 51 percent-48 percent, with Mr. Romney carrying at least 279 Electoral College votes, probably more.”

Rove, WSJ, Oct. 31.

“George Will’s Electoral [vote] Pick: Obama 217. Romney: 321.” Added Will: “I’m projecting Minnesota to go for Romney.” (It didn’t.)

Washington Post columnist Will, on ABC’s “This Week,” Sunday.

I think this is premature. We’ve got a quarter of the vote. Now remember, here is the thing about Ohio. A third of the vote or more is cast early and is won overwhelmingly by the Democrats. It’s counted first and then you count the Election Day, and the question is, by the time you finish counting the Election Day, does it overcome that early advantage that Democrats have built up in early voting, particularly in Cuyahoga County? . . . Even if they have made [the call] on the basis of select precincts, I’d be very cautious about intruding in this process.”


Rove, on election night, disputing Fox News’s decision to call Ohio, and the election, for Obama.

“You know, after the election, either I’m going to have to go through a big reckoning or [people who think I’m wrong] are. And you know what? They are.”

Morris, on Fox News, Sunday.

farhip@washpost.com

Article source: http://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/style/faulty-predictions-for-election-2012/2012/11/07/4cb0a532-2914-11e2-96b6-8e6a7524553f_story.html

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